I won't say that we'll find out when Miguel Angel Cotto defends the welterweight title (I'm done using the names of sanctioning bodies; a guy's the champion or he's not.) against Antonio Margarito what both fighters are made of. Each is years past that sort of thing. The fight won't be decided on heart.

And there are no mysteries facing us. We know exactly what both fighters can do. We know what they can't do too.

They're not exactly equally skilled. Cotto gets the nod in both technical expertise and punching power. He's got the faster hands and the better reflexes. He's been through fewer wars. He's the money fighter too, the one the suits "want" to have win, since his victory begins to set the stage for a positively gargantuan showdown with Oscar De La Hoya early next year. And Antonio Margarito lost a fight just three outings ago.

So why is it so difficult to pick a winner in a fight where nothing is hidden from view?

And why am I so certain that this will be the toughest fight of Miguel Angel Cotto's career-tough enough so that he may not even win it even though he's the better fighter?

Because "tough" is the operative word here. Nobody currently boxing is tougher than Tony Margarito. Not even Miguel Angel Cotto.

And this is exactly the kind of fight that Antonio Margarito lives for. There is nothing he sees in Cotto as an opponent that he doesn't like. He knows Cotto hits very hard. He's been hit hard before. It doesn't bother him much, certainly not enough to make him think twice about being willing to accept it in order to do his work. Success comes with a serious price tag at this level. Look at the motherfucker's face; you don't think he figured that out a long time ago?

Miguel Angel Cotto is a small welterweight who has yet to face a big welterweight. With his precise body punching, extraordinarily heavy hands, and patient but unyielding pressure, he's been able to impose his will on everyone he's faced, with the exception of Shane Mosley.

But there's nothing to compare between Mosley and Margarito. Mosley, who has moved way up in weight over the years, is a sharp, sophisticated boxer/puncher (with more emphasis on the boxing aspect as he's moved out of his optimal divisions) who varies his strategies as required.

Antonio Margarito is the quintessential brawler. Always in spirit-breakingly good condition, he throws one hundred punches per round-gradually upping his output as the fight unfolds-and is apparently impervious to pain. When he gets hit with a good punch, he smiles, not as a denial gambit, but in appreciation. He is a war machine.

How will Miguel Angel Cotto enforce the measured pace that he prefers when his stronger opponent insists on pressing forward, throwing nearly twice as many punches as are being thrown at him? How will he deal with a guy whose forearms and wrists are heavy, who hurts you with the punches he lands on your arms and shoulders and hips? And how will he deal with a guy who, on the inside, grabs you to move you where he wants you to go?

To begin with, Cotto can (and may have to) opt to box. He may choose to use his legs, move backward when necessary, and give Margarito the angles that seem to bother him. But although it's true that Cotto spent a good deal of his fight against Shane Mosley boxing, he's not really wired that way.

Against Mosley, he gained currency by arguably outboxing a master boxer. He won't get credit with the public for outboxing Antonio Margarito. Cotto knows what's expected of him in this fight. I think he'll try to deliver the war that people are paying to see. He may discover, though, that measured diplomacy is sometimes called for.

With all this equivocation, have I actually made a choice as to who I think will win?

I have, although I won't be surprised if I'm wrong. I think that this is the night when Miguel Angel Cotto makes the step up to bona fide superstar. For starters, he'll utilize one of boxing's most overlooked skills: his intelligence. He's a remarkably grounded, mature young man. He's got lots of fighting spirit, but he's someone who's capable of reconnoitering.

Margarito is likewise an intelligent and focused man, but his fighting style is entirely monochromatic. You don't have to plan for contingencies when facing him. You just have to know you're going to get roughed up a lot. If you can take the heat, you've got a shot. Additionally, there's a good chance that, although Tony has recently taken pains to start faster, Cotto can win the first few rounds almost by default. Margarito traditionally takes a few rounds to get rolling.

Both guys are going to get banged around quite a bit. Both will be bruised up and possibly cut. Both can handle it. In the end, it's probably going to come down to versatility. Miguel Angel Cotto has a few more options than Antonio Margarito, and I think he'll use them. In what will be a rough fight, I hope the ending isn't anticlimactically decided by a clash or heads or some other mishap that causes the fight to be prematurely stopped.

I think that Miguel Angel Cotto will fight when he can and judiciously box when he must. No one has ever knocked Margarito out, and I don't think Cotto will be the first to do it. I know that he'll make a stand, get Margarito's respect, and establish unambiguously that he's in there to fight. But he's the one who'll present angles, who'll slip punches. He's the one who'll finally move away during a firefight.

In the end, this will be the margin needed to win. Cotto will win some rounds just by outboxing Margarito.

There will be some very tense moments. Conceivably there will be times during the fight when it'll look like Cotto is going to lose. That's when his intelligence and available resources with kick in. He won't run, he won't lose anyone's respect. But he'll deflect when it's in his best interest to do so.

And he'll emerge after twelve rounds against Antonio Margarito having passed his sternest test. And poor Tony will continue to be one of the most avoided fighters in the world. At least he will have had this big payday (one that's long, long overdue.)

I've been tough on HBO lately for their lousy recent matchups. I'll compliment them on this one though. Nobody is going to be sorry they watched this fight. Cotto versus Margarito is about as nearly Can't-Miss as things get in boxing.